What is a Monster Success?
So your telling me there's a chance. No. No, not really.
What about some ludicrous-speed, monster success? Some poker style one-outer longshots?
Let’s think about and position for this without attachment because this is incredibly unlikely.
Some best case, magical, Mary-Poppins-practically-perfect-in-every-way scenario thinking…
Events for 2018:
- q1 sale to Customer 1 with 2 locations
- their compliance scores skyrocket North
| Year | ARR | Market Share (States) | No. of Customers | No. of Cust Locations |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | $1.5k | 3.5-5% (1) | 1 | 2 |
Events for 2019:
- q1 sale to Customer 2 with 10 locations
- q3 (?) announcement for 100% 3rd party testing for the State
- our Customers have the State’s best compliance scores
| Year | ARR | Market Share (States) | No. of Customers | No. of Cust Locations |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | $20k | 20% (1) | 2 | 12 |
Events for 2020:
- q1 move to 100% 3rd party testing for the State: TAM is now $250,000
- market saturation because, as said above, our Customers have the State’s best compliance scores and unmatchable Customer Service
- product #2 with major adoption (+25%)
- major success in q1 (woot!), lapped in q2
| Year | ARR | Market Share (States) | No. of Customers | No. of Cust Locations |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $312.5k | 100% (1) | 50 | 100 |
Events for 2021:
- q1 move to 10 other US States: TAM is now $2M
- our Customers’ testimonials drive adoption
| Year | ARR | Market Share (States) | No. of Customers | No. of Cust Locations |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $625k | 25% (11) | 250 | 500 |
And all this at the extra likely chance of…
0.000000000000000000001%.
So your telling me there’s a chance.
No. No, not really.
Back to grounded reality: Why am I doing this?